Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 2.369356 2.778170 3.231888 3.772146 4.397299 5.097312 5.939969
2025-11-09 1.609745 2.119123 2.747708 3.577653 4.641689 5.956869 7.702393
2025-11-16 1.196786 1.736613 2.464507 3.511390 4.971101 6.925775 9.731721
2025-11-23 0.935519 1.476132 2.262503 3.478639 5.298431 7.903598 11.894299
2025-11-30 0.798287 1.354381 2.217866 3.638841 5.896584 9.315953 14.846961
2025-12-07 0.666258 1.207992 2.100753 3.654919 6.261195 10.412250 17.459964
2025-12-14 0.559684 1.079056 1.983181 3.640368 6.559365 11.425360 20.055498
2025-12-21 0.478853 0.977533 1.890869 3.646413 6.881196 12.502663 22.876051
2025-12-28 0.450742 0.967881 1.958387 3.943323 7.747552 14.602002 27.692558
2026-01-04 0.401801 0.907096 1.918616 4.030425 8.236591 16.086858 31.587389
2026-01-11 0.362542 0.858294 1.893032 4.138281 8.774523 17.716744 35.929834
2026-01-18 0.320819 0.795800 1.828541 4.155349 9.131295 19.038887 39.831098
2026-01-25 0.271905 0.708705 1.700367 4.024904 9.182025 19.797296 42.779836
2026-02-01 0.225468 0.617969 1.548867 3.819815 9.047184 20.170304 45.011626
2026-02-08 0.195002 0.560406 1.463356 3.749927 9.197121 21.150771 48.624914
2026-02-15 0.171050 0.514573 1.397638 3.715291 9.420446 22.312505 52.761679
2026-02-22 0.160482 0.502967 1.414943 3.885880 10.147622 24.668584 59.798247
2026-03-01 0.144087 0.471157 1.374364 3.903021 10.504808 26.225063 65.198757
2026-03-08 0.128447 0.438082 1.324483 3.887546 10.777929 27.616461 70.373414
2026-03-15 0.115570 0.410611 1.285168 3.893984 11.107485 29.179212 76.129197
2026-03-22 0.114289 0.420136 1.353350 4.209933 12.294285 32.966752 87.693080
2026-03-29 0.105903 0.404209 1.343840 4.302606 12.891616 35.350395 96.034861
2026-04-05 0.098900 0.391485 1.341890 4.417351 13.565879 38.005352 105.347719